Antoine Shluchat, a Palestinian researcher specializing in Israeli affairs and director of the “Israeli Landscape” unit at the Palestinian Center for Israeli Studies, presented three potential scenarios for the formation of the next Israeli government during a seminar titled “The Israeli Elections: A Preliminary Reading of Results and Government Formation Scenarios.” The event was organized by the Qarar Center for Public Affairs Research in cooperation with the Jordanian Institute of Politics and Society.
Rejection of Early Re-election
Shluchat emphasized that the first scenario proposed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—calling for new elections after challenging the results on grounds of irregularities—has been effectively ruled out. He noted that both the Central Elections Committee and the Israeli security establishment have confirmed the validity of the results and refused to delay their announcement.
The Coalition of National Unity
The second scenario involves the formation of a national unity government. Shluchat linked this possibility to the looming threat of war with Iran, stating that the probability of conflict now approximates the probability of its avoidance. While acknowledging pressure from the United States to push for such a coalition, he highlighted significant internal obstacles. He argued that Netanyahu would welcome this outcome as it allows him to remain in power and avoid prison or trial. However, Shluchat described this scenario as lacking clear indicators and strong momentum.
A Temporary Minority Government
Shluchat identified the third scenario—a temporary minority government—as the strongest possibility. This government could be formed by the opposition relying on the two Arab blocs, one of which is ready to join the coalition if barriers are removed. Avigdor Lieberman remains a primary obstacle, having declared he will not support a minority government nor serve in any cabinet containing Netanyahu. If Lieberman changes his stance, Shluchat suggested the opposition could control the Knesset, replace its speaker, establish an official inquiry committee, and pass legislation barring individuals suspected of criminal offenses from running for office. This sequence could lead to the dissolution of the Knesset and new elections, potentially ensuring accountability for Netanyahu while preventing his future candidacy.
Skepticism Toward Opposition Leadership
Shluchat dismissed illusions regarding a government led by Benny Gantz, asserting that no fundamental change would occur. He cited the political programs of parties within the “Change” camp, noting that Meretz explicitly stated that a two-state solution is an error and that Palestine is not a relevant topic for the coming period. Other opposition parties supported settlement projects like E1 and opposed the recognition of Palestine. Furthermore, Shluchat pointed out that Lieberman’s platform advocated dismantling the Palestinian Authority and negotiating with Jordan over Areas A and B, while the Democratic Current supported setting aside peace efforts.
Characteristics of Israeli Society
Reflecting on the election results, Shluchat outlined several traits of Israeli society, including the rise of extreme nationalism, a shift from managing the conflict to resolving it through force, and a disregard for human rights. He described a dominant military ethos, subservient media, and growing ties between capital and power, leading some experts to compare Israel to a banana republic. Additional concerns included the weakening of labor organizations, suppression of academic freedoms, loss of trust in governing authorities, and increased reliance on a single leader.
