Electoral Results and Coalition Shifts
Israeli writer and journalist Nedav Eyal stated in an article for Yediot Ahronot that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lost the 26th Knesset elections, but emphasized that true defeat occurs only after a new government is formed without him. According to television exit polls, Israel has effectively dismissed Netanyahu from power. His Likud-led coalition currently holds 68 seats in the existing Knesset, but most channels indicate this number has dropped to 50 seats, representing a loss of 18 seats—a blow not seen in many years.
The Arab Vote and Jewish Electorate
Eyal noted that despite the historic increase in Arab voter turnout, the setback primarily came from the Jewish public. Netanyahu no longer commands a Jewish majority, nor a Zionist majority, or a majority within the Knesset itself. The writer highlighted disappointment among various Jewish parties regarding the high Arab participation rate. Extremist minister Itamar Ben-Gvir encouraged Arabs to vote, yet his own supporters abandoned him, revealing that being a minister who promotes discrimination against citizens cost his party seats.
Gadi Eisenkot’s Position and Opposition Fractures
The analyst pointed out that it remains unclear if there is a clear winner. General Gadi Eisenkot, head of the Yesh Atid party, is now the undisputed candidate. Even if Naftali Bennett joins Avigdor Lieberman, Eisenkot can align with Yaakov Litzman; together they hold more seats than other parties in the bloc. A large gap exists between them and other factions. For stability, Lieberman and Bennett must stand with Eisenkot, which benefits them as well. If Eisenkot fails and another election occurs, these leaders can tell the public they did everything possible.
Challenges in Forming a Stable Government
Eyal warned that the path to forming a stable government is long, winding, and perhaps impossible. Netanyahu loses only if a new stable government replaces his. He observed that while the Change Bloc rejoices at the high Arab turnout because it complicates Netanyahu’s chances even after further elections, internal contradictions persist. Most voters in Eisenkot’s bloc want to form a government with Raam (Mansour Abbas), but even Abbas’s party cannot provide a stable majority. Leaders like Lieberman, Bennett, and Eisenkot have denied this possibility for their own reasons.
Risk of Further Elections and Right-Wing Return
Creating an immediate minority government is easy, but convincing Lieberman is difficult due to valid arguments that such a government would be unstable, fall quickly, and lead to the return of Netanyahu and the far-right—a scenario that cannot be entirely excluded. If Lieberman agrees, the inevitable result is another election, where the Change Bloc would face greater difficulty winning. Eyal suggested that going to another election means Netanyahu remains prime minister. To achieve change, the opposition must cooperate, something they failed to do during the campaign. Internal conflicts plagued the Change Bloc until the last moment. Without artificial calm, Netanyahu’s significant loss could become the seed of his victory.
