Opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot finds himself in a precarious position regarding the formation of a new government, caught between the refusal of Arab parties and the steadfast support of the Shas party for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Jewish opposition is betting on wooing the two Haredi parties, Shas and Yehud HaTorah, to join their coalition. However, this strategy faces significant hurdles due to deep ideological differences, particularly concerning the exemption of yeshiva students from military service—a key issue during the election campaign.
The Arithmetic of Power
The election results highlight the mathematical difficulty Eisenkot faces. The anti-Netanyahu bloc, led by Eisenkot’s Yesh Atid party, secured 48 seats. In contrast, Netanyahu’s camp holds 53 seats, and Arab parties hold 19, out of the 120 seats in the Knesset. To form a stable government, a coalition requires 61 seats. Currently, the opposition falls short. Even if they successfully attract both Haredi parties, which together hold 13 seats (7 for Yehud HaTorah and 6 for Shas), they would reach exactly 61 seats. If only one Haredi party joins, the total remains insufficient: 55 seats with Yehud HaTorah or 54 with Shas alone.
Shas Defects to Netanyahu
A major blow to Eisenkot’s plans came when Shas announced its recommendation to President Isaac Herzog to appoint Netanyahu as the next prime minister. The party’s Council of Sages justified this decision based on Netanyahu’s clear commitment to maintaining the legal status of yeshiva students. Shas accused left-wing parties of hypocrisy and persecution against the Haredim. Meanwhile, Yehud HaTorah has remained silent on its recommendation, awaiting consultations with President Herzog. Regardless of Yehud HaTorah’s stance, Shas’s alignment with Netanyahu remains a primary obstacle to an opposition-led government.
Rejection of Arab Cooperation
Eisenkot and several allies insist on forming a “Zionist government,” defined as a coalition comprising only Jewish parties without relying on Arab representatives. This stance is rooted in four principles: recognizing Israel as a Jewish, democratic, and liberal state; upholding independence values; enforcing mandatory military, national, or civil service for all citizens; and designating Hamas as a terrorist organization to be dismantled. However, this approach lacks internal consensus. Avigdor Lieberman of Israel Beiteinu and Naftali Bennett of Yamina strongly oppose using Arab votes, fearing it could lead to government collapse and strengthen Netanyahu in future elections. Conversely, Yair Lapid of the Labor Party suggested keeping options open regarding Arab cooperation, though other participants reaffirmed the exclusionary policy.
The Conscription Standoff
The core conflict remains the conscription law. Opposition leaders campaigned on ending exemptions for yeshiva students, accusing Netanyahu of protecting draft dodgers. Lieberman stated he has no issue with Haredi participation if they accept the conscription principle. Yet, Haredi parties are determined to protect their institutions from military service and maintain educational funding. This creates a dilemma for Eisenkot: securing a majority may require compromising on the very policies that mobilized his base, while excluding them risks failing to form a government altogether.
