As the confrontation with Iran enters its seventh month, the cost of the conflict is no longer calculated solely in terms of missiles, aircraft, or attack sequences. Instead, it is defined by structural shifts within the United States economy, specifically regarding inflation, fuel costs, borrowing rates, and mortgage expenses. Recent data indicates that the financial burden on the United States has exceeded tens of billions of dollars, extending its impact to millions of households and businesses domestically, as well as to economies far removed from the combat zones.
In an article published in The Wall Street Journal titled “How We Can Buy Time in the Conflict with Iran,” retired General and international relations researcher David Petraeus outlined three axes of the ongoing confrontation in the Middle East. He described these axes as “clocks ticking at different speeds.”
The first axis, termed the “operational clock,” concerns the flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Petraeus noted that over the past two weeks, the passage of oil and liquefied natural gas through the strait reached its highest levels in six months. He highlighted the importance of alternative routes, citing that the emirate of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates exported approximately 2.28 million barrels of crude oil daily in July. Additionally, reports indicated that Saudi Arabia sold about 60 million barrels of crude oil from the Ras Tanura port in the Gulf for loading in September and October. Petraeus estimated that Gulf oil exports under these conditions could range between 15 and 16 million barrels per day. While this figure remains below pre-war rates, it is much closer to global market requirements, especially given the decline in demand since February.
The second axis, the “market clock,” suggests that the world has gained more time than anticipated. Petraeus pointed to expectations of a global oil demand drop of approximately 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, noting that demand has already decreased compared to pre-war levels over the last six months. He argued that if Gulf oil flows recover, non-Gulf producers increase output beyond their usual rates, and global demand remains low, the remaining deficit margin could narrow to one or two million barrels per day, or even less.
The third axis, the “Washington clock,” identifies the greatest political cost of the conflict at American gas stations. Regular gasoline prices have reached approximately $4.48 per gallon, while diesel hit $6.52. Petraeus suggested that falling crude oil prices and reduced production costs could alleviate this burden, granting Washington more time and influence.
On the other side, Iran faces escalating pressures due to the effective halt of its oil exports caused by the blockade on Hormuz. The International Monetary Fund expects Iran’s inflation rate to reach approximately 69 percent this year. Petraeus concluded that Iranian influence stems from its ability to block other countries’ oil exports from passing through Hormuz and threaten alternative routes. Conversely, American influence relies on ensuring these exports reach their destinations, excluding Iranian shipments. Therefore, every additional non-Iranian tanker crossing safely, every extra barrel exported by the UAE or Saudi Arabia, and every single barrel decrease in global demand serves to diminish Iranian influence.
