An analysis published in the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Thursday has brought to light critical intelligence warnings received by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. According to the report, Abu Dhabi issued a direct alert approximately two and a half weeks prior to the October 7 attacks, indicating that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was planning an event described as a “quake.” This revelation challenges the Prime Minister’s public assertions that his security briefings focused exclusively on threats from Hezbollah or Iran.
Intelligence Warnings and Internal Disputes
The article cites a high-ranking intelligence source confirming that the possibility of a significant and imminent operation by Hamas was communicated to Israeli leadership. The report highlights a stark contrast between these warnings and the government’s subsequent actions. It references a severe message sent by Major General Amit Sae’ar, head of Research at the Mossad, which warned that the Middle East was on the verge of an explosion. Sae’ar attributed this instability to extremists within the government who were igniting multiple fuse lines across the region, including Gaza, Hezbollah, and Iran. He explicitly stated that the government alone would bear responsibility for the consequences of their policies.
The “Sarujim” Communication Channel
A central focus of the investigation is the existence of a clandestine communication network known as “Sarujim,” which operated alongside official diplomatic channels. Established around July 23, 2023, following failed efforts to prevent legislative changes regarding judicial oversight, this channel facilitated the exchange of information through intermediaries linked to senior Hamas members. Messages were reportedly passed via the brothers of key figures, reaching directly to Sinwar.
According to sources familiar with the mechanism, these backchannels provided highly sensitive intelligence in the month preceding the war. One such message quoted Sinwar stating that by late September, Hamas would deliver something that would cause a “quake” and lead to the release of all prisoners. Despite the gravity of these claims, representatives from Hamas have consistently refused to comment on the alleged existence of this specific secret conduit.
Netanyahu’s Strategic Calculus
The newspaper argues that maintaining contact with Hamas was integral to Netanyahu’s long-term strategy for managing the conflict. Sources indicate that the Prime Minister viewed any dialogue with the enemy as a deterrent against miscalculation and unwanted war. By fostering periods of calm, economic understanding, and prisoner negotiations, Netanyahu aimed to extend stability while allowing Hamas to retain control over Gaza. The report suggests that the Prime Minister often bypassed formal mediation structures in favor of trusted envoys, believing that direct, albeit secret, communication reduced the risk of escalation compared to official state-to-state interactions.
